Truman: A Review
I recently finished David McCullough’s excellent biography of President Harry S. Truman. Despite its voluminous size of 1100 pages (992 pages + notes), the book is exceedingly fast-paced (except perhaps for the first 30 pages, when McCullough sets the background tracing Truman’s ancestry).
President Truman was the only president in the 20th century who did not have a college degree. Given how presidential qualifications and social preferences (on free college) have evolved, it is fair to say that he may probably be the last such president. Truman is also one of the presidents about whom my thoughts have altered significantly over the years.
Here are 5 lessons that I picked from my reading and observations in no particular order.
1. It’s Never Too Late: Truman’s Late Beginnings & Failures
Truman is an excellent example of why nothing is too late to begin in life.1 He married at a late age of 36 to Bess Truman and was married to her till his death. His first business venture as a retailer in his late 30s, after a flying start, diminished and ultimately failed, leaving him in debt, which he continued to pay back for several ensuing years. He did not enter politics until his 40s. He did not possess any of the oratory skills or the early promise that many other presidential candidates showed. Initially, he was in fact quite lackluster, but his sincere work ethic was his defining distinction.
His political roles — his selection as a senator, and his ascension to the vice-presidency, eventually the presidency — were at some level fortuitous accidents. He was also consistently under-estimated when he assumed those roles. However, once in that position, he seized the chance. Truman was supremely hard-working and tireless that he made a mark on every role he took, as evident in his quiet heroism in World War I, his charm and hard work in the Senate, and his indelible personal mark on the Presidency by taking the ultimate responsibility.
2. Define Your Roles & Don’t Let Your Roles Define You: Truman’s Extraordinary “Ordinariness”
While Truman was ambitious, he was never torn by ambition itself. He loved being popular, but he did not mind leaving the trappings of the Presidency.
He held to old guidelines: work hard, speak the truth, assume no airs, trust in God, have no fear.
Truman genuinely held on to his friendships from years before. His political beginnings came out of the Pendergast political machinery and he was “loyal” in his friendship to a fault even after Pendergast was imprisoned. After his presidency, he took the train back to Independence, MO, and settled down in the same modest house that he had lived in. (Before JFK assassination, ex-presidents did not have secret service detail). He declined speaking fees and all the post-presidency gravy train. David McCullough points out that Truman lived more penuriously than all other former Presidents. Famously, Truman declined a Toyota car as a gift, because he would only buy American cars with his own money.
He was quick to “do the right thing” for its own sake, as he did when he anonymously arranged for Eisenhower’s son (who was serving in Korea) to come home to see his father’s inauguration as President. As Truman lived out his long life, through melancholy days that saw many friends and acquaintances pass away. He lived to eighty-eight as a wise old man, charitable and forgiving, like a tree, planted in his roots.
3. You will Never have All the Information You Need: Truman’s Clarity & Steadfastness
Truman presided the country through some extraordinary times: the fall of Third Reich, the dropping of the Atomic Bombs, the founding of the UN, the growth of Iron Curtain, the founding of Israel, the birth of modern China, the Korean War, and virulent McCarthyism. Given that he had no inkling of momentous decisions that kept landing at his desk — no one really could have, given the length of Roosevelt (FDR) years at the office — his clarity of thinking and the steadfastness to his decisions were amazing.
Atomic bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki is an indelible tragedy and a terrible event in the evolution of human history. The decisions leading to it seem to have been stockpiling at a dramatic and gathering pace even before Truman arrived at the White house. Tokyo was being already carpet-bombed at a staggering scale exceeding the Allied bombings at Dresden — 80,000 deaths by some accounts. However, “S1” — the code for the atomic bomb — was an entirely different monstrous beast in its appetite for death and destruction. Truman was the one who had to make the final decision.
Anyone without the humble background and decisiveness of Truman would have borne the humongous weight of the decision miserably, as it eventually destroyed Oppenheimer. (American Prometheus, the book on Oppenheimer’s life is an extraordinary companion to read with Truman biography). In his meeting with Oppenheimer, who was quite distraught, Truman was clear in apportioning any blame on himself, as he made the final decision.
The book does not record Truman’s anguish or self-punishing introspection of the decision, which is troubling. It may be the same simplistic Truman quality that resonated as “salt of the earth”. He made a terrible decision and he was going to live through it — he gets to live after all, unlike the thousands that didn’t — because Truman felt that one couldn’t go back and change the past. This unfortunate sparse introspection continued as the US atomic policy for several decades with successive governments displaying distress about the prospect of future deaths while being defiantly forgetful of the past deaths.
4. There is No Perfect Hero: Truman’s Blindspots & Failings
Truman had his controversies and blind spots. Truly, his faults pale in comparison to the presidents that followed him, but nevertheless they were remarkable.
- Truman came from a family that held a deep distrust for Lincoln from the civil war. In an extraordinary vignette, Mama Truman was appalled when it was suggested to her that she could sleep in the Lincoln Bedroom when she visited the White House. She would have chosen to sleep on the floor instead!
- Truman was somewhat skeptical of the civil rights struggle, definitely of its modus operandi, and perhaps even of its ultimate goal. He also held a distaste for JFK, partly because of JFK’s Catholicism and partly because of his purported “inexperience”. Despite trusted advice to the contrary, Truman chose to air his grievances at the nomination convention. Another lens to view this dislike is economic status. Truman always believed that he was a friend of “common man”, which he felt JFK was not.
- Overcome with emotions after reading a deeply critical review of his daughter Margaret’s theatrical performance, he wrote an ill-advised letter (his spokesperson Charlie Ross, who would have prevented this mishap, had unexpectedly died of coronary occlusion just a few days back) to the Washington Post critic Hume, threatening to assault him:
Mr. Hume:
I’ve just read your lousy review of Margaret’s concert. I’ve come to the conclusion that you are an “eight ulcer man on four ulcer pay.”
It seems to me that you are a frustrated old man who wishes he could have been successful. When you write such poppy-cock as was in the back section of the paper you work for it shows conclusively that you’re off the beam and at least four of your ulcers are at work.
Some day I hope to meet you. When that happens you’ll need a new nose, a lot of beefsteak for black eyes, and perhaps a supporter below!
Pegler, a gutter snipe, is a gentleman alongside you. I hope you’ll accept that statement as a worse insult than a reflection on your ancestry.
H.S.T.
Perhaps as a reminder of the costs of his mishap, Truman also kept an astringent letter written by the parents of a Purple Star veteran who lost his life in the Korean war. They, in returning their son’s medal, had admonished Truman over his poor behavior and focus on trivialities.
5. Never Give Up Without Toiling: Early Forecasts are Inaccurate
“Dewey Defeats Truman” picture (above) is probably the most well-known picture of Truman. I came across the picture as a 16-year old in India not knowing much of Truman.2 In the light of the recent consternation with 2016 election polling, it is insightful to look at 1948 data.
Now, we know from statistics, that forecasts improve as we get closer to the event that is being forecast. (In the Operations context, I have talked about how accruing early information changes forecasts previously). Truman imbibed this concept in spirit. It is unsurprising, as he was known to be a solid poker player, and knew when to fold, and when to bet against the odds.
Even though it is years before Upshot and 538, the Dewey-Truman surprise can be understood by the noisiness of the long-term forecasts. The last real poll of the 1948 election was at least a month ahead of the November elections. (Dewey led by 9 points on the polls).
In fact, in its October 11, 1948 issue, three weeks before the election, Newsweek polled 50 writers for their forecasts of who will win the Presidency. The result: 50 for Dewey, 0 for Truman. If one went by the polls, the election was as good as over. Truman looked at the article and said (according to McCullough):
“I know every one of these 50 fellows. There isn’t one of them has enough sense to pound sand in a rat hole.”
We all know how that history panned out. Through his guts, intuition and relentless hard work on his Whistle Stop tour Truman changed the odds of winning. Fundamentally, Truman understood Americans.
Forecasts are a static recording of temperature. However, the body politic itself is a dynamic organism.
Notes and Related Readings:
- An amazing example of a “late”-beginner is Klaus Obermeyer, founder of Sport Obermeyer, who turned 99 (in 2018), attributes his good physical health to genes, and starting Aikido 35+ years back (when he was 60!).
- It was amazing to me that the newspaper would print such a headline because Indian elections results are never announced as certified until all the votes were counted (which causes a significant delay, of course). Unaware of the nature of statistical “calls” of results, I had assumed the half-truth that the newspaper brazenly printed the results, before they were announced.
- John Hersey, who wrote Hiroshima later, was provided with extraordinary inside access to the workings of Truman White House and wrote an excellent profile for the New Yorker magazine. Mr. President: A Weighing of Words by John Hersey. New Yorker. May 5, 1951 Issue.
- Oppenheimer is an interesting figure, a polyglot, and a distraught genius. He once tried to poison his colleague. He learned to read Sanskrit. Of the atomic explosion, “Now I am become Death, the destroyer of worlds” — he quoted Bhagavad Gita, not in Krishna’s omniscience, but, sinking in self-dread of death and mayhem from the knowledge, like Arjuna. American Prometheus: The Triumph and Tragedy of J. Robert Oppenheimer, by Kai Bird and Martin Sherwin is a contemporaneous guide.
- I loved reading John Adams by David McCullough. Through the writings, I felt that David McCullough absolutely revered Adams more than Truman. I could be wrong.
- I also loved River of Doubt, a book on Terry Roosevelt, who was probably the most macho outdoors-man President that we had. He charted an uncharted river in South America! Not at all like the guy in Arsenic and Old Lace.